The problem with induction is how to justify such inferences. Opponents believe that truth cannot be demonstrated in this way; a hypothesis must be empirically tested after it has been formulated.
For A to be the cause of effect B, when A occurs, B appears, both are close in space. After many repetitions, we automate the thought. For Hume, it is a matter of habit; induction is not infallible. Russell supports him with the story of the inductive turkey who had dinner at 9pm for years and reasoned that he always would, but one Christmas his throat was cut and he was the one for dinner. The necessary condition is the key. However, regularity creates the illusion of cause. The scientific method combines induction and deduction to test hypotheses.
To do this, one draws conclusions until one finds a statement that can be contrasted with observation or experiments. If what is observed agrees with the conclusions, there is no reason to reject it, so it is provisionally accepted. A statement is scientific if it is refutable.
There are three wrong ways of accepting a statement: 1) Accepting it without justification (dogmatism) 2) Deducing it from other statements (infinite regression) 3) Justifying it by perceptual experience (psychologism). This is because acceptance can be linked to feelings, beliefs or convictions. A theory must be subject to the test of some basic statement derived from it.
A method is a path, therefore, to successfully traverse it, it is necessary to have personal virtues to overcome obstacles.
The old theory of truth affirms it as a correspondence between statements and facts. But it is not possible to know something with certainty, there is only an approximation to the truth. There is an objective reality and the truth seeks to approach it. A statement is true until something discredits it as such. A false truth is to affirm that “The exception confirm the rule”. It is just the opposite, it destroys it. Truths are always provisional. That is why scientists take nothing for granted.
Many who believe they use reason often produce falsehoods, turn them into beliefs, and then defend them tooth and nail. Others even deny reality and have nothing to contrast their statements with because they eliminate the element of comparison. Combining subjective truths and fundamentalist beliefs is detrimental to objectivity. Aristotle said that reality is the only truth.
Truth demands an information system that shows what happens when we encounter reality. A test may show hyperglycemia; an electrocardiogram, atrial fibrillation; and a clinical check-up, arterial hypertension, but these are irrelevant warnings if they are ignored, their meaning is unknown, or if it is interpreted that they all have similar symptoms. Without understanding them, there is no diagnosis or remedy.
There are huge mistakes that remain hidden. Such as that it is derogatory to measure poverty, that it is discriminatory to compare performance, that the criminal is a victim of society or that inflation is a sensation. Society is anaesthetized, by force of narrative, so that it does not see signs of anomie, corruption, exclusion, transgression and marginality. It is necessary to wake up, tomorrow may be too late.
It involves changing attitudes. It is therapeutic to compare one truth with others in order to put an end to the denial or exculpatory attitude and to subject its plausibility to successful experiences. What has allowed the development of other nations, companies or people? What are the factors that act as catalysts for the process? Getting closer to the truth requires choosing models that work.
Everything has been tried, but the cycles of illusion and disenchantment are repeated. It often happens that by putting interests before the truth, the causes of the problems cannot be seen. Or also that by living clinging to a potential past or nostalgic for riches that no longer exist, the present is prevented from reconciling with the future. Lies distort the past and cling to the present. Truth assumes the present and builds bridges with the future. By rescuing virtues such as effort, decency, merit, solidarity and trust, a project can be put together that includes them. By avoiding the systematic error of believing that others are to blame, responsibility is assumed to be shared. The place of spectator removes the responsibility of evaluating the past and providing for the present, joining forces to generate harmony and growth. At the doors of a new beginning, if the actors of the present have a good memory, history will operate as the teacher and the fracture with the truth will begin to close.
Theory must be articulated with practice. Ignorance or disregard for natural laws, action without feedback, generate catastrophes. Ignorance or lack of effective action produces a hell full of good intentions. For Keynes Models must adapt to reality and not reality to the model. Good theory comes from experimentation and observation.
Ideas can help generate hypotheses through observation. For scientists, knowledge is their instrument or hammer; their vice is always seeing a nail. There are different contexts: that of discovery, that of justification and that of application.
In an accident, the doctor sees the physical damage, the psychologist the mental damage, the mechanic the material damage, the lawyer the trial, the police the guilty party, and so on. To avoid biased vision, science works as a team. Chance is one thing and good luck is another. The apple that fell on Newton’s head showed how a theory arises from an accident. Intelligent power combines skills. Einstein said that he never discovered anything with his rational hemisphere. To create, he used the right hemisphere and thought in images. Then logic took over.
Reality can be seen from the dominant theory (normal science) or by generating new hypotheses (revolutionary science). In the 17th century, a scientist could encompass all the knowledge of his time. Today, this is impossible; knowledge grows exponentially.
In times of accepted theories, scientists sweep the rubbish under the carpet, their glasses prevent them from observing. Paradigms are theories that are not questioned because they are shared by those who possess knowledge. Education cultivates discipline and not curiosity, error is penalized.
Many discoveries arose while looking for something else and by chance, such as Fleming’s penicillin, discovered by accident in a laboratory culture. Serendipity is the unexpected discovery, the fruit of accident and sagacity. An idea becomes important when its opportunity comes. For Freud The heresy of one age is the orthodoxy of another. One is crazy until he succeeds; then they call him a genius.
The episodes of unexpected science connect science with art and demonstrate that while science surpasses human limits with universal principles, knowledge is created by brains, immersed in a society and a culture. Brains that are not well trained.
It is the process of creating hypotheses that explain surprising facts. The idea that arises from an intuition is not demonstrated by deduction or by generalizing particular cases (induction). It is not known if it is valid and that is what must be found out by formulating an intuitive hypothesis to clarify what cannot yet be explained. Intuition comes from prior knowledge.
The scientific method starts from a hypothesis, which is obtained by abduction, deduction derives its consequences and induction tests them. In practical life we create ideas to solve problems and we innovate by questioning routine. All this is enhanced by methods that constitute, without a doubt, man’s greatest wealth. Intuition, like science, also has its method. However, the scientific method advances with education, as Pasteur said: “chance only favors prepared minds.”
